Revisiting My 2022 Prediction About EVs

Sorry, Forbes, but you were wrong: it was "irrational exuberance" for sure.

Image by Grok

It was almost four years ago that I published an article for Forbes calling out what I saw as many errors then being made in business, the media, and politics when it came to electric vehicles.

Bloomberg had just published a piece breathlessly reporting that, having hit 5% of American market share, EVs were at a “tipping point” and ready to skyrocket in popularity and adoption. California had just mandated that EVs would be the only vehicles allowed to be sold in the state come 2035, and GM and Ford were both rushing headlong toward what they envisioned was a golden EV-only future. (Indeed, GM CEO Mary Barra had declared that her company would sell more EVs than Tesla by 2025 and make EVs only by 2035.)

None of that made a lick of sense to me, so I dug into things. And I discovered a very different picture…