Really bad news on oil prices

Manufacturers, get ready: things are going to get a lot more expensive for a long time

Image by Grok

I woke up this morning to a stark warning from energy consultant David Blackmon in his latest Substack: oil prices are heading up sharply in coming weeks, probably to $150-$200 a barrel. (Blackmon was actually repeating the caution he issued weeks ago, not long after the outbreak of hostilities in Iran, that this was the likely trajectory.)

That comes on the heels of a similar alert earlier this week by energy writer Irina Slav, who predicted prolonged (in this case, potentially for years to come) pricing for Brent crude in the $120-$150 per barrel range.

It’s a pretty straightforward supply chain reality. The combination of daily shortfalls in oil deliveries of around 12-13 million barrels per day, combined with the destruction of production facilities in the Middle East due to the war, mean that supply is tighter than we’ve seen in a long, long time.